Philosophy Dictionary of ArgumentsHome
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| Newcomb’s Paradox: is a thought experiment, in which a subject should select one of two boxes and thereby has a secure option for a chance to win, but can significantly increase this chance by increasing the risk of losing everything. An omniscient being, who has usually correctly predicted the decision of the subject, tries to thwart the profit of the subject person. Should the subject choose the safe option or play risk? Can the subject still change its strategy during the experiment? See also freedom of will, backward causality, prisoner´‘s dilemma._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. | |||
| Author | Concept | Summary/Quotes | Sources |
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W. Poundstone on Newcomb’s Paradox - Dictionary of Arguments
I 373 Newcomb's Paradox/Poundstone: clairvoyant claiming to predict your actions to 90% - Box A: definitely a thousand mark note B: 1 million or nothing. The clairvoyant has predicted what you will do 24 h before. - He will leave the box empty when he foresaw that you take both. I 375 There are good reasons to take only box B. - When he is right in 90%, you get nothing but a gullible idiot gets 1 million. Probability calculation: game-value: 10% of 1 million (that the clairvoyant is wrong). - If he is 99% right, higher reward: 990,000. I 376 Rule: like prisoner's dilemma: one should never be the first to be disloyal. >Prisoner's dilemma. I 377 Variant: with glass boxes ... I 380 The one who takes both boxes, thinks he is smarter than the rules allow. Newcombe/Poundstone: both pro "Just B" I 381 Newcomb's Paradox/Nozick: here two strategies are pitted against each other: 1. Principle of dominance: what is better in all circumstances, dominates 2. Principle of the expected benefits: what promises higher benefits? I 382 Dominance varies depending on whether one takes the horse or the player into account at a horse bet - in the world, nothing changes. Solution: in this the variant, the situation is not dependent on the decision- Principle of the dominance is only applicable if the decision is not affected by the result. I 383 Influence of Newcomb's Paradox would only be possible with retroactive causality. >Causality, >Time reversal, >Backward causality. NozickVsNewcombe: take both boxes - under any conditions always the dominant strategy. >R. Nozick. I 386 Newcomb's Paradox/Martin Gardner: the prediction must be a fraud; as I cannot believe that 91 (13x7) is a prime number. - I would just take the offered 10 cents for the correct answer._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments The note [Concept/Author], [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] resp. "problem:"/"solution:", "old:"/"new:" and "thesis:" is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition. |
Poundstone I William Poundstone Labyrinths of Reason, NY, 1988 German Edition: Im Labyrinth des Denkens Hamburg 1995 |
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> Counter arguments against Poundstone
> Counter arguments in relation to Newcomb’s Paradox
Ed. Martin Schulz, access date 2024-04-28